A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have been increased by Rs 3 per litre each, marking the first rate hike in over four years. This decision follows a period of stable prices during recent state elections, despite rising global crude oil prices and significant losses for fuel retailers.
'Even if the war ends tomorrow, which is unlikely, and we go back to the pre-war status quo, the world will still need some time to get over the sudden shock of oil price increases.'
World Bank South Asia Chief Economist Franziska Ohnsorge advocates for the removal of obstacles hindering the adoption of artificial intelligence to foster business growth and job creation, particularly in South Asia.
'At the first sign of real trouble, that money will move. There will be a run.'
India's manufacturing sector experienced a mild recovery in April, with the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 54.7 from 53.9 in March. However, inflationary pressures intensified, with input costs increasing at the fastest pace since August 2022, largely attributed to the Middle East conflict.
This is the time for India to plan forward fully, with the goal of Atmanirbharata, and energy security. The Persian Gulf is no longer a reliable source, points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
With duties at 15%, GST at 3%, and making charges running as high as 20% -- the gap between a smart purchase and a careless one can easily be Rs 30,000 to Rs 50,000 on every Rs 1 lakh invested. And most of that gap is entirely avoidable. Ramalingam Kalirajan explains the math.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The contraction in total reserves was driven by a fall in gold reserves, which dropped $13.49 billion to $117.19 billion during the reported week.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
Aditya Puri is one of the cleanest examples we have, in Indian corporate history, of a leader who understood early that the measure of his work was not what happened while he was in the chair. It was what would keep happening when he was no longer there, says Suresh M K.
India's private sector activity saw a significant recovery in April, driven primarily by robust growth in manufacturing output and sales, following a three-year low in March attributed to the West Asia conflict.
'The West Asia or the Gulf crisis has shown that what we develop as national infrastructure when things are not as bad as they could be, we forget to plan for adversities.'
Under the TMC, Bengal has seen expansion of welfare, but not big-ticket private investment.
India is one of the few nations, and perhaps the only nation, that has good relations with America, Israel and Iran. Knowing that a war in the Gulf would damage our economy, hurt supply of fertilisers and fuel, and cause general chaos, we should have tried to ensure this war did not begin, asserts Aakar Patel.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
Goldman Sachs has materially lowered its earnings growth forecast for Indian companies by a cumulative 9 percentage points over the next two years.
The World Bank has affirmed India's strong position to withstand the current global energy shock, citing high foreign exchange reserves, fiscal space, and low inflation as key buffers supporting continued growth despite international headwinds.
Who have been India's Laureates, winners from India or of Indian-origin?
'The time has come to incorporate Indian sociology into economic policy.' 'The first step in that direction would be to listen to economists trained in India and not just the US and the UK, argues T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan.
'After the Galwan clash, the rules of engagement changed with the army commanders allowed to use any means at their disposal as they deem fit for tactical operations.'
India's services sector growth slowed in March, reaching a 14-month low, according to the HSBC India Services PMI. The slowdown reflects weaker new business intakes and rising input costs, particularly in fuel, transport, and logistics.
Trump may strike. He may announce productive talks and extend again. He may do both at the same time. Iran will not open the Strait on someone else's terms, so no matter what happens, that problem will remain unsolved. And the IRGC will still be collecting its $2 million toll from every ship bold enough to ask permission to pass.
India's new manufacturing project announcements more than halved in the fourth quarter of FY26, falling 60 per cent sequentially and 78 per cent year-on-year to approximately 1.7 trillion, driven by global uncertainties, geopolitical conflicts in West Asia, and existing unutilised manufacturing capacity.
The benchmark BSE Sensex's trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has declined to 20.2x, its lowest since May 2020, driven by a record $42 billion FPI selloff since September 2024 and concerns over corporate earnings and economic growth.
India has managed high government debt-to-GDP, a slowing domestic revenue engine, lower household savings and a more hostile geopolitical environment separately in the past. But together, they threaten to undo the growth narrative on which today's optimism rests, warns Debashis Basu.
The cost of the war is being counted not in the corridors of power in Washington or Tehran, but in Firozabad's darkened furnace rooms, Howrah's idle casting sheds, and a barbershop in Kochi where the wait is suddenly, inexplicably, an hour long, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
India, the world's fourth largest economy, is set to maintain the 'goldilocks' phase with tailwinds of good growth, low inflation and robust banking performance as well as reform initiatives poised to sustain the economic pace witnessed during 2025.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
16 days into the war, US forces were already running out of ground-attack missiles and Israel is about to expend its entire Arrow interceptor missiles by end March. To be sure, the Iranians are watching closely and that explains their defiant stance that 'Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its conditions are met', notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'The contours of the trade deal need to be reworked now.'
'AI adoption is moving faster than our ability to measure it -- and that's a challenge for anyone trying to make smart decisions.'
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's biggest challenge will be to find a new growth driver, particularly against the backdrop of a global economy ravaged by heightened uncertainty and fragmentation, financial markets on a precipice, and global commodity prices on a continued uptrend.
